With the Longhorns idle this weekend in preparation for Texas A&M on Thanksgiving, all the eyes of Texas are upon the Texas Tech Red Raiders versus Oklahoma Sooners game Saturday night in Norman. While Texas has attractive paths with either team winning, the road ahead will certainly become clearer when the game is over.
Note: All projections depend upon Texas beating A&M. A third straight loss to the Aggies is too horrible to even imagine.
If Tech beats OU, they lock up the Big Twelve South, knocking Texas out of the running for a conference championship. Given that going into the season, this was my upside goal, this outcome would sadden me a bit.
If Tech wins out, they will be headed to the national championship, and Texas will be headed to a BCS game (most likely the Fiesta Bowl). I would certainly consider that a successful season, although having to hear the smack talk from Tech fans for a year would be painful.
If Tech beats OU, but loses to Baylor and/or the Big 12 Championship, their two Division I-AA opponents will come back to haunt them and they will drop like a stone. In this situation, Texas might jump up high enough to play for the national championship, especially if there are no undefeated teams.
If Oklahoma beats Tech and Oklahoma State, and Tech beats Baylor, we have a three way tie for the Big 12 South. In that case, the team with the highest BCS ranking would go to the Big 12 Championship. It’s too close to say whether that would be Texas or OU, but if that team goes on to win the Big 12 Championship, they probably play for the national championship. The other team probably goes to a BCS bowl.
If Oklahoma beats Tech and loses to Oklahoma State, and Tech beats Baylor, Tech goes to the Big 12 Championship by virtue of having beaten Texas head-to-head. I don’t think Tech plays for the national championship in that case. In fact, Texas might go to Miami.
Is your head spinning yet? Gotta love the end of the season.
Back to Saturday’s game. Bob Stoops is certainly capable of laying an egg in a big game, but he rarely does it at home. Tech regularly has cold streaks during a game, and is due for a down game.
On the other hand, OU’s defense isn’t all that good. Tech should have some success moving the ball. And their defense should be able to slow down OU’s offense. (Did I really just type that?)
I’ve underestimated Texas Tech in their last two games, and I may be doing so again, but I think the Sooners beat the Red Raiders by two touchdowns in a game with no lack of offense.
Oklahoma Sooners: 49
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 35
The following weekend, the Sooners will lose to Oklahoma State in the Bedlam series, and Texas Tech gets a scare from Baylor. Yes, that’s what I said. I don’t expect Baylor to pull off the upset, but it’ll be closer than the Red Raiders would like.
What a strange season…