Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Predictions

With the Longhorns idle this weekend in preparation for Texas A&M on Thanksgiving, all the eyes of Texas are upon the Texas Tech Red Raiders versus Oklahoma Sooners game Saturday night in Norman. While Texas has attractive paths with either team winning, the road ahead will certainly become clearer when the game is over.

Oklahoma State v Texas Tech

Note: All projections depend upon Texas beating A&M. A third straight loss to the Aggies is too horrible to even imagine.

If Tech beats OU, they lock up the Big Twelve South, knocking Texas out of the running for a conference championship. Given that going into the season, this was my upside goal, this outcome would sadden me a bit.

If Tech wins out, they will be headed to the national championship, and Texas will be headed to a BCS game (most likely the Fiesta Bowl). I would certainly consider that a successful season, although having to hear the smack talk from Tech fans for a year would be painful.

If Tech beats OU, but loses to Baylor and/or the Big 12 Championship, their two Division I-AA opponents will come back to haunt them and they will drop like a stone. In this situation, Texas might jump up high enough to play for the national championship, especially if there are no undefeated teams.

Kansas v Oklahoma

If Oklahoma beats Tech and Oklahoma State, and Tech beats Baylor, we have a three way tie for the Big 12 South. In that case, the team with the highest BCS ranking would go to the Big 12 Championship. It’s too close to say whether that would be Texas or OU, but if that team goes on to win the Big 12 Championship, they probably play for the national championship. The other team probably goes to a BCS bowl.

If Oklahoma beats Tech and loses to Oklahoma State, and Tech beats Baylor, Tech goes to the Big 12 Championship by virtue of having beaten Texas head-to-head. I don’t think Tech plays for the national championship in that case. In fact, Texas might go to Miami.

Is your head spinning yet? Gotta love the end of the season.

Back to Saturday’s game. Bob Stoops is certainly capable of laying an egg in a big game, but he rarely does it at home. Tech regularly has cold streaks during a game, and is due for a down game.

On the other hand, OU’s defense isn’t all that good. Tech should have some success moving the ball. And their defense should be able to slow down OU’s offense. (Did I really just type that?)

I’ve underestimated Texas Tech in their last two games, and I may be doing so again, but I think the Sooners beat the Red Raiders by two touchdowns in a game with no lack of offense.

Call it:
Oklahoma Sooners: 49
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 35

The following weekend, the Sooners will lose to Oklahoma State in the Bedlam series, and Texas Tech gets a scare from Baylor. Yes, that’s what I said. I don’t expect Baylor to pull off the upset, but it’ll be closer than the Red Raiders would like.

What a strange season…

4 Comments on “Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Predictions

  1. Derek

    If your prediction proves true, doesn’t Tech still go to the Big 12 Championship game? (OU losing again, Tech holds the tie-breaker against Texas…)

    Now it seems like Texas is damned either way. Unless OU wins out. How can THAT be good?!?

  2. Brian Combs

    Yes, if OU beats Tech and loses to OSU, and Tech beats Baylor, Tech goes to the Big 12 Championship game. I think that would knock them out of the national championship game however. With their non-conference schedule, a loss really hurts them, unless we have another year where almost everyone has two or more losses. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

    In this scenario, Texas might actually jump into the national championship game. There’s nothing that says you have to win your conference to play in it (although there are those that say there should be).

  3. Derek

    I’m of the school of thought who thinks we should ALWAYS root for OU to lose. Don’t forget 2003. Fooled me once…

    If Tech wins out, Alabama loses to Auburn (hopefully by at least a touchdown or so – yeah, I know, but still…), and then ‘Bama beats Florida in the SEC Championship game, I think Texas is #2.

    And of course, Texas beats the hell outta A&M.

    I think most coaches and AP voters would put Texas ahead of ‘Bama (and Penn State, et. al.) for their only loss being on the road, in a close, down-to-the-wire game to the #1 team in the country.

    Probable? No. Possible? Yes.

    It’s 9:55pm, and OU STILL SUCKS.

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